The end is nigh

Labor remains the likely victor in Saturday’s federal poll after more than five weeks of campaigning. Labor was maintaining a comfortable lead in most major polls towards the end of the campaign which would see it returned either as a majority or minority government. However, the polls were also showing that up to 20 per cent of the electorate had still to make up their minds suggesting a surprise result was still possible. The Coalition also released costings late in the campaign in a bid to emphasise its perceived traditional strength as a better economic manager. Releasing its budget/election campaign costings, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor said the Coalition would shave $40 billion off debt over the next four years, by when it is forecast to reach $1.2 trillion, and more than $10 billion from the $150 billion cumulative deficit forecast. In the final week, a message came from ratings agency Standard and Poor’s that Australia could lose its Triple A credit rating unless election spending was reined in, and off-budget initiatives were curtailed. Losing the high rating would push up the cost of borrowing for Australia into the future. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was awarded the final debate of the campaign by a panel of swing voters meaning he won three of the four debates staged during the campaign. Ultimately it was a campaign dominated by interruptions by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the death of His Holiness Pope Francis and the Easter and Anzac Day breaks.

China threat looms post-election

China was never far from the security debate in this election despite the campaign being dominated by US President Donald Trump. China impacted the campaign early and in a dramatic way when it despatched a flotilla including warships to conduct live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea. Only last week the US Armed Services Committee heard from senior defence chiefs that the threat from China was escalating, with President Xi Jinping ordering the People’s Liberation Amry to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. In the final debate of the campaign Opposition Leader Peter Dutton cited intelligence officials to refer to China directly as a threat to Australia. The Coalition announced it would boost defence spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2030 and 3 per cent by 2034-35 in response to a deteriorating strategic circumstances in the region. But both leaders have tried to maintain a balanced stance given China remains Australia’s biggest trading partner. The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has taken plenty of credit for stabilising Australia’s relationship with China and getting Beijing to lift a series of damaging trade bans. However, China’s offer for Australia to join it in a campaign against US tariffs was probably a bridge too far. Both leaders remained steadfastly committed to AUKUS and the US alliance.

All quiet on the Defence policy front

The Albanese Government finished the election campaign without releasing a defence policy. Seems the commitment to boost spending by $57.6 billion to 2033-34 which was outlined before the election will have to suffice for the near future. This is despite regular acknowledgements by both sides of politics that Australia inhabits the most challenging national security environment since World War 2. However Prime Minister Albanese did say a second term Albanese Government would keep defence spending under review if returned to power on Saturday. This was in response to the Coalition releasing its long-awaited defence spending policy. The announcement involved boosting spending over five years by $21 billion more than Labor, to reach 2.5 percent of GDP by 2029-30. The Coalition would then spend more to reach the Trump target for allies of 3 percent within a decade. This means a boost in spending under the Coalition to around $135 billion by 2034-35. The Coalition policy also included a pledge to boost the involvement of SME’s in domestic defence procurement and exports.

Stand-off over Aussie tanks for Ukraine

It was reported this week that 49 surplus Australian Army Abrams tanks promised for Ukraine frontline had yet to be despatched despite the transfer being announced by the Albanese government six months ago. The Australian newspaper reported that the fail to depart was linked to a dispute with the Trump administration (they are US made tanks) in approving the deal and uncertainty over whether the US or Australia would pay the estimated $150 million a year running costs for the tanks. However, The Australian also said the US Congress was just days away from approving the transfer of the tanks – a move required under US law. The impasse comes with the US President Donald Trump intent on ending the war in Ukraine, which may explain some reluctance on behalf of the US administration to support the tank transfer. President Trump has been negotiating with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky to reach a peace settlement. Mr Trump has warned his patience is running out and he will abandon his efforts to secure a ceasefire unless both parties reach a settlement soon. Mr Putin strangely offered this week to have a three-day ceasefire from May 8. Mr Zelensky was sceptical of Russia’s latest three-day ceasefire offer but has sought an immediate 30-day ceasefire as has the US.

Russia doubles down

A row over whether Russia asked Indonesia for access to an airbase just 1200km from Darwin just refuses to go away. Russia’s ambassador to Indonesia Sergei Tochenov told a briefing for journalists in Jakarta that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton were engaged in a game to see who could be the bigger Russia-phobe. Mr Albanese has been under pressure over whether he knew about the Russia proposal before the election, but the Prime Minister has cited confidential intelligence for avoiding an answer. Mr Dutton landed in hot water after suggesting the Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto had publicly confirmed the Russian move to use the airbase when the Indonesian president said no such thing. Mr Dutton was forced to admit an error. Indonesia has again rejected reports it had any such plans.