Cyclone Alfred fuels election timing uncertainty

The impact of Cyclone Alfred is the latest factor in Federal election planning. Strong speculation suggested Prime Minister Albanese would call an election this weekend for April 12 but the once in 50-year cyclone and the devastation it could wreak on Brisbane and surrounds means the poll could face further delay. The Prime Minister said as much on Thursday when he said he was focussed on the challenges facing the millions of Australians bunkering down in the cyclones’ path in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The natural event came as the federal election looks like taking on a tinge of khaki. US president Donald Trump’s head of policy at the Pentagon Eldridge Colby on Wednesday called for Australia to lift its defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP in keeping with its role in a region with an increasingly powerful China. Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Richard Marles responded that it was completely reasonable for the US to ask its friends to do more. DPM Marles said he had also had a discussion with US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth about lifting Australia’s defence spending. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has committed a Coalition government to spending more on defence although he has not yet stipulated how much more. As a downpayment the Opposition has pledged a Coalition government will buy a further squadron of F-35 joint strike fighters for $3 billion, although analysts suggest the full cost including through life support would be three times that figure. The Albanese Government, following the release of the Defence Strategic Review pledged to increase defence spending to 2.3 percent of GDP by 2033-34 or an extra A$50.3 billion. A marginal seats poll released by Redbridge gave Labor a glimmer of hope this week as it closed the gap on the Coalition in the wake of the Reserve Bank interest rate cut. The poll of 20 marginal seats conducted for News Ltd found the Coalition led by 50.5–49.5 on a two-party preferred basis, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the February 4–11 marginals poll.

AUKUS Submarine Industry Strategy launch

DPM Richard Marles on Wednesday launched the AUKUS Submarine Industry Strategy in a bid to uplift Australian Defence industry to handle all the submarine work ahead. The strategy acknowledges Australia can only succeed in acquiring and sustaining conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines, building and sustaining SSN AUKUS and continuing to maintain the Collins class if all levels of the national submarine enterprise are involved. AIDN has been calling for a formal AUKUS submarine industrialisation strategy for some time to ensure Australia’s sovereign SME base is fully involved in these ambitious opportunities. AIDN CEO Mike Johnson welcomed the strategy while acknowledging more needed to be done in relation to defence procurement to foster SME involvement. DPM Marles said the strategy set out how the Albanese government would continue to implement initiatives and programs to support, guide and grow priority industry sectors alongside AUKUS partners and was a multi-decade, multi-generational undertaking.

WA Labor likely to win third term

The WA Cook Labor Government looks likely to be comfortably returned in a scheduled poll to be held on Saturday. Although polling was conducted early in the race the Labor Government could lose as many as 12 seats to the Liberal-Nationals. But Labor has such a comfortable majority in WA that it would still retain at least 40 seats maintaining a comfortable advantage in the 59 seat Lower House. The race looks much closer in the Upper House where Labor could lose control making it more reliant on minor parties to get its legislative agenda passed. The poll follows the former McGowan Government’s landslide victory in 2021 off the back of a popular policy of closing WA borders to keep the disease out. WA plays a key role in AUKUS hosting rotations of visiting UK and US submarines as part of SRF West from 2027. In one of the few defence election promises Labor pledged hundreds of young West Australian will be trained for AUKUS based defence industry jobs. All major parties have targeted cost of living, housing, and health for major funding boosts, while the Liberal Nationals have also targeted crime.

China tensions worsen

Australia-China tensions worsened for the third week in a row with the Chinese ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian accusing Australia of politicising trade and technical issues in in banning the AI app Deepseek. The ambassador accused Australia of taking restrictive measures against Deep Seek under the pretext of ‘security risks’. The ambassador’s comments came as a Chinese naval taskforce was continuing to transit along Australia’s West Coast on Thursday around 565km south east of Perth. The taskforce triggered a national furore over China providing insufficient notice of live fire exercises conducted in the Tasman Sea between Australia and new Zealand. Qantas and Virgin Australia flights had to be diverted around the zone. Former Home Affairs Department Secretary Mike Pezzullo warned that China could be rehearsing for a land invasion of Australia. China responded that its taskforce was acting within international law, and the country posed no threat.

Procurement change boost SME’s

The Albanese Labor government has announced Australian businesses seeking to win Commonwealth procurement contracts will be captured by an official Australian business definition. The change means an Australian business would be defined as having 50 percent or more Australian ownership or being principally traded on the equities market, having an Australian tax residency and its principal place of business in Australia. The changes also increase the SME exemption from $200,000 to $500,000 to give SME’s more access to a greater number of contracts, raise the target for SME contract procurement and ensure at least one SME must be included in every approach to market through service procurement panels. AIDN has long lobbied for changes to Commonwealth procurement rules to enable Australian SME’s to compete for more work. AIDN CEO Mike Johnson has welcomed the move but called for the policy to be extended to include the defence sector.