Labor eyeing off two terms

Nothing is taken for granted in politics, but Labor’s election victory was so emphatic that a further two terms is not beyond the realm of possibility. Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese inflicted one of the worst defeats on the Coalition and became the first Prime Minister to win a second term since former Liberal Prime Minister John Howard in 2004. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and Greens Leader Adam Bandt both lost their seats. Coalition recriminations began on polling night with accusations the campaign had been unwieldy and chaotic, failed to address a problem with women and out of touch with urban Australia. The Coalition was not expected to elect a new leader until after the full result comes through but jostling for position had begun with Deputy Leader Sussan Ley and Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor emerging as favourites for the position of overseeing the future of the Liberal Party. Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan and Shadow Resources Minister Ted O’Brien have also been in the mix. With 81 per cent of the vote counted in the 150 seat Lower House on Thursday, Labor had been accorded 89 seats, the Coalition 40, Independents 10, and the Greens zero. Eleven seats were still in doubt. The Greens lost another two seats in Brisbane while a third seat was still in the balance. The so-called Teal Independents with their climate change agenda also appear to be here to stay despite likely losing at least one seat to the Liberals in Victoria. Labor is likely to have an easier road to passing legislation likely picking up to an extra four seats. This means Labor will mainly have to deal with the Greens and the Opposition rather than the rump of Senate Independents whose votes were highly prized in the previous parliament.

Stability and Continuity in Defence

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is loath to amend his frontbench unless absolutely necessary and so it is with the Defence portfolios. Though some seats were still in doubt Mr Albanese was expected to reshuffle his frontbench next Tuesday. But even before that Mr Albanese has already confirmed Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles would continue as Defence Minister. Pat Conroy is also expected to continue as Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Minister. During the election campaign Mr Albanese also promised to look again at defence spending to see if a further increase is needed. Fortunately, after a first term in which the government released a flurry of strategic and policy documents which slowed defence investment the second term should be very much about delivering on capability. Labor has pledged to bring forward $ 1 billion over the forward estimates and to boost spending to 2.3 per cent of GDP or by 57 billion by 2033-34. AIDN will continue its campaign to ensure we have a more self-sufficient and sovereign Australian Defence Industry, in which greater opportunities are provided for SME’s and the sector does not just benefit from procurement but truly thrives.

Global challenges remain

The election contained just enough reminders of the big challenges to global defence and national security over the next term of government and beyond. Australia received a wake-up call when a flotilla of Chinese warships conducted a live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea and proceeded to circumvent the nation. Confirmation also emerged in the campaign that President Xi wants the PLA in position to take Taiwan by force in 2027. Meanwhile the Russians were alleged to be busy negotiating with the Indonesians about the possibility of using a defence base in the archipelago just 1200km from Darwin. Fortunately, Indonesia denied this would ever happen. If Australian’s ever needed a reminder of the most dangerous strategic environment since World War Two, these interventions provided it. Ensuring the success of AUKUS and the sale of Virginia class submarines also remains a challenge as concerns persist over the capability of US shipyards to produce enough submarines for its own Navy as well as Australia’s. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese agreed to “increase ambition’’ on AUKUS in a phone call post Mr Albanese’s election win and their renewed commitment will be sorely needed to keep the AUKUS program on track.

India-Pakistan flashpoint

As if the world was not volatile enough, a flare-up between India and Pakistan over disputed Kashmir has erupted this week. India and Pakistan both lay claim to the area and have fought three wars over the mountainous region since 1947. The latest row was triggered after suspected rebels killed at least 26 people a fortnight ago in the tourist resort of Pahalgam. India immediately blamed Pakistan and this week launched military airstrikes on targets in Pakistan, with Pakistan claiming it had shot down five Indian Air Force jets in response, in a dangerous escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals. India said its missile strikes targeted “terrorist infrastructure” across nine sites deep in Pakistan’s densely populated Punjab province and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan said eight people were killed in Wednesday’s strikes – including women and a three-year-old girl. The escalation puts India and Pakistan, in dangerous territory, with the risk of tit-for-tat responses spiralling into another all-out war.

India-Australia relations to strengthen

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first to congratulate Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Labor being returned to government at the election. The two leaders agreed to strengthen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) between the two countries. They noted that in its five years, the CSP has seen robust cooperation developing across a diverse range of sectors. The two leaders also talked about regional and global challenges and reiterated their commitment to working together in promoting a free, open, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Modi invited Prime Minister Albanese to India for the annual Australia-India Summit and the QUAD countries summit both of which will be hosted in India later this year.