Albanese has poll nose in front

Labor has its nose in front as we pass the two-week mark of the election campaign. The dramatic intervention of US President Donald Trump who paused his reciprocal tariff crusade for 90 days saw a week where trillions were lost on global markets come to a halt for now. However, 25 percent aluminium and steel tariffs and a 10 per cent general tariff remain on Australian exports to the US, including defence exports. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles said the Australian Government was continuing to lobby the Trump administration on behalf of defence industry to ensure defence trade was tariff free. Mr Marles argued the tariffs harmed Australian exporters and the building of US military capability. In the first debate of the campaign at the Wenty Leagues Club in western Sydney, Prime Minister Albanese won on points over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in a debate focused on cost-of-living issues. The select audience of swinging voters gave Mr Albanese 44 votes, Mr Dutton 35 while 21 were undecided. However, there will be a re-match when the two leaders debate again on the ABC on Wednesday evening next week. In the Newspoll early in the week Labor led the Coalition 52-48 which was its best result in nearly a year and mirrored the 2022 election result which saw Labor retain majority government by just one seat.

AIDN issues tariff defence trade warning

AIDN has warned higher global tariffs triggered by the Trump administration are harmful to Australia-US defence trade. AIDN in a statement issued this week called for the US and Australian governments to mitigate the negative impact of tariffs ensuring they did not undermine mutual defence objectives or disrupt essential defence trade. The statement said that defence exports often involve complex supply chains, with components and technologies sourced from multiple countries. The tariffs, particularly those targeting steel, aluminium, and other essential materials, have led to increased costs for Australian exported goods. This had resulted in higher prices for the products Australian industry provides to global markets, diminishing competitiveness and potentially eroding Australian market share in the US. While The statement acknowledged the US remains a key partner in terms of technology sharing, joint military exercises, and procurement of advanced defence systems, tariffs have created a barrier to collaboration and technology transfer. AIDN ultimately fears tariffs could potentially incentivise the US to turn inward, focusing on domestic production at the expense of international partnerships vital for ensuring the stability of the Indo-Pacific.

Coalition gas and electricity price drop

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has released the modelling underpinning his gas reservation policy with costs of both gas and electricity to drop for business and householders if the Coalition wins the election. The modelling carried out by Frontier Economics on behalf of the Coalition says if a gas charge were introduced which aims to ensure gas companies direct up to 100 petajoules to the domestic sector at a price of less than $10, and away from exports it would lead to a 15 per cent drop in the industrial gas price and 7 per cent drop in household gas bills. Similarly given the role of gas in electricity generation, cheaper gas would mean an 8 per cent drop in the wholesale electricity price in 2025-26 and a 3 per cent drop in the price of household electricity bills. Gas companies have expressed concern over the impact the policy would have on Australia’s lucrative export gas industry, though Mr Dutton has dismissed industry concerns saying reducing cost of living pressures for business and households takes precedence. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese dismissed the plan as designed to distract voters from the Coalition’s costly nuclear power plan.

Marles for Foreign Affairs post poll

The Australian reported this week that Labor Foreign Minister Penny Wong may quit politics after the next election to be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles. Speculation that Senator Wong would quit politics has surfaced several times since before the 2022 election over a desire to spend more time with her partner and young family. The article said Senator Wong was predicted to go no matter which way the election result goes. However, DPM Marles said he was focussed on winning the election. Mr Marles also said Labor had avoided the merry-go-round of Defence Ministers which had characterised the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments. The article also suggested that current Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Minister Pat Conroy was the logical successor to take on the senior Defence portfolio if DPM Marles becomes Foreign Minister.

Port of Darwin reclaimed

Both major parties have vowed to remove the Port of Darwin from Chinese government linked company Landbridge over longstanding national security concerns if they win the federal election. Both major parties have vowed to find an approved private buyer or take the port back into government ownership. The NT Country Liberal Party government leased the port to Landbridge in 2015 for a sum of $506 million. The port’s Chinese ownership has come under fire over the past decade given Darwin is Australia’s closest port to Asia and it is used by both the ADF and the US Navy. However, leaseholder Landbridge restated its position that the port is not for sale, with Landbridge Director Terry O’Connor warning it was being used as a political football in the election campaign.