Rate cut boost to early poll

The odds of an early election increased with the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese buoyed by the first Reserve Bank (RBA) interest rate cut in four years. The RBA cut the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points from 4.35 per cent to 4.10 per cent where it had been since November 2023. In doing so the RBA provided much needed cost of living relief to cash-strapped home mortgage holders. Labor seized on the rate cut as signalling the worst was over, although RBA Governor Michele Bullock cautioned against expecting another to automatically follow stressing the Bank was still fighting inflation. Latest election speculation suggested the Prime Minister would call the election in March (most likely just after the WA election on March 8) and go to the polls on April 12. But the government’s excitement was dampened by a YouGov poll released early in the week which suggested the Coalition would form government if an election had been staged then. The YouGov poll involved a large sample of more than 40,000 people and an analysis of voting intentions in each of the 150 electorates. It found the Coalition was most likely to win 73 seats and Labor 66 which meant the Coalition would form at least minority government. A Newspoll of 1244 voters conducted for The Australian a day later showed no change from January. The poll showed the Coalition leading Labor 51-49 on a 2PP basis. On a uniform swing the poll found Labor would lose up to eight seats, but not enough to see the Coalition win back power. The most likely election outcome on the Newspoll result was still a minority Labor Government.

Pre-election defence funding debate heats up.

Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie has pledged a Coalition government would spend more money on Defence and provide greater support for SME’s. Shadow Minister Hastie made the pledge in a speech to the annual ADM Congress in Canberra. He suggested a Dutton government would be better equipped to manage the vital relationship with the Trump administration, spend more money on defence, define and insist on sovereign Australian content and local manufacturing and provide more support for the SME sector. He accused the Albanese government of starving SME’s of funding as they had been afflicted with cuts, delays, rescopes and indecision. But Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Minister Pat Conroy in his address to the Congress maintained spending on Australian industry had increased and major projects had been accelerated under Labor. Minister Conroy said spending on acquisition was up 16 per cent last year to $16.7 billion, while sustainment spending was up 12 per cent to $16.3 billion. He said of the total spend; a record $22 billion went to Australian industry. Minister Conroy said the Albanese government had already committed to spending an extra $50 billion on defence to 2033-34 but the Coalition was divided over whether to increase defence spending.

Defence espionage threat growing

ASIO Director General Mike Burgess has used the release of the agency’s annual threat assessment to warn the defence sector including industry of growing espionage and sabotage threats. Mr Burgess said the defence sector would come under even greater threats from espionage and foreign interference and even sabotage, with the AUKUS submarine program offering an enticing target for foreign spies. Mr Burgess said multiple countries were relentlessly seeking information about Australia’s military capabilities while defence personnel were being targeted in person and online. Some were given gifts containing concealed surveillance devices. Mr Burgess said AUKUS which was already being monitored by an Australian Federal Police special command would be a priority target for foreign adversaries and friendly nations as they sought to steal information on critical capabilities and undermine US and UK confidence in Australia. He added that sabotage would pose an increasing threat to defence assets through the pre-positioning of cyber backdoors in systems which could be exploited at a later date.

Dialogue back amid ongoing China tensions

Australia and China revived bi-lateral defence talks after six years despite continued tensions over near misses in the South China Sea. The 23rd China-Australia Defence Strategic Dialogue took place in Beijing on Monday in the first such talks since 2019. The resumption of the dialogue comes amid escalating China-Australia tensions. Australia protested what it termed “unsafe and unprofessional actions’’ by a PLA Air Force J-16 fighter which dropped flares close to a RAAF Poseidon P-8A reconnaissance aircraft. Beijing accused Australia of violating its airspace, but Australia rejected Beijing’s accusations insisting its actions were fully in line with international law. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese agreed to resume the dialogue during the Annual Leaders Meeting in June.

New STEM grants round

The Albanese Government has awarded more than $11 million in new STEM grants under the School Pathways Program. The grants include $1.9 million to With You With ME to provide 3,300 students access to information sessions, skill-mapping and mentoring in relation to defence industry careers; $1.7 million to Australian Remote Operations for Space and Earth Ltd for the AVISTA program that will reach 200 schools, and engage students, teachers, and parents through hands-on STEM activities, virtual reality experiences, and defence career summits; $397,493 to MEGT Australia to support school-based traineeships and apprenticeships in the naval shipbuilding and broader defence industry in Adelaide and Perth; $1.6 million to Fleet Space Technologies Pty Ltd, for the LaunchBox program that provides teacher-led classroom lessons and works with students to build and launch an educational satellite; $536,243 to Technology for Education Solutions for students to solve real world problems using immersive virtual reality (VR), 3D modelling and coding.