Coalition outspends Labor on Defence

The Coalition has stolen a march on the government by finally releasing its long-awaited defence spending policy. The spending boost comes in three parts a short boost over five years by $21 billion more than Labor, a commitment to reach 2.5 percent of GDP by 2029-30 and to reach the Trump target for allies of 3 percent within a decade. The Opposition leader has had a better week with a Channel Nine debate awarded by the select questioners panel to him with a much-improved performance. Topics covered included cost-of-living, housing, energy bill relief, healthcare and Donald Trump. Earlier in the week another Newspoll saw the overall position of the two major parties unchanged which means Labor leads 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis. This means Labor would form a majority government or just fall one or two seats short on uniform trends, if repeated on May 3. Though it was not unexpected the death of his holiness Pope Francis saw another day lost in the campaign which has also been affected by Easter and with Anzac Day still to come. Mr Dutton maintains the party’s internal polling shows the poll is much closer than public polling would suggest, with the Coalition launching an ad blitz through to election day.

China threat escalates

The US Armed Services Committee has heard from senior defence chiefs that the threat from China is escalating. This comes against a backdrop which sees the Trump administration and President Xi locked in an existential battle on Trump’s tariff policies. John Noh, serving as acting assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, testified at a House Armed Services Committee hearing in Washington, warning that China aims to dominate the Indo-Pacific and supplant the United States as the world’s pre-eminent power. He noted that President Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. To counter this rising threat, Mr Noh argued that the US must restore deterrence in the Indo-Pacific by deploying combat-ready forces, rebalancing burden sharing with allies and partners, and boosting its defence industrial base. Navy Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, pointed out that in 2024, the PLA ramped up operations near Taiwan by 300 per cent, describing these activities not merely as exercises but as rehearsals for future conflict. Admiral Paparo also mentioned that China is outpacing the US in air, maritime and missile production while rapidly advancing its space and counter-space capabilities – a development that challenges US military superiority but also opens the door to potential reforms and long-term strategic gains.

All quiet on the IR front

Though this election has seen ministers and Opposition shadow ministers lining up to debate one another that has not been the case on industrial relations. Employment Minister Murray Watt said this week a re-elected Albanese government would legislate to protect penalty rates in the banking, clerical, and retail industry. Employers have applied to the Fair Work Commission to remove shift payments in return for higher wages. Mr Watt went on to challenge his Opposition counterpart – Shadow Employment Minister Michaelia Cash to a debate on industrial relations. However, Shadow Minister Cash accused the Employment Minister of “struggling for relevance’’. However at least both sides of politics have pledged to continue to lobby the Trump administration to remove tariffs. The US has imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Australian aluminium and steel imports. Australia has also copped a 10 percent general tariff. AIDN has urged the US and Australian governments to ensure defence trade is not disrupted.

Campaign on but early voters switch off

It is true that most voters ignore elections until the last couple of weeks and even more so when the Easter/Anzac Day break is in the middle of the campaign. However, April 22 was a red-letter day for voters, when those sick of the election who had made their mind up already could lodge a pre-poll or postal vote. There has been an increasing trend for more of the electorate to go to the polls early to avoid the election day rush and yes even the sausage sizzle. And this is a trend that persists in both Federal and State elections. The Australian Electoral Commission suggests that of the more than 18 million voters, around 5.6 million lodged a pre-poll vote in 2022. A further 1.2 million lodged a postal vote. So, what does this mean for the leaders. If they make a mistake now it could have reduced impact because so many in the electorate have already voted. However, given the campaign is so close and essentially looking like Labor’s to lose, expect both leaders to step up their campaigns over the last eight days. They are chasing at least the one third of voters who say they are undecided.

Russia tells Australia to butt out

Russia was not content to leave well enough alone with the Russian ambassador to Indonesia, Sergei Tochenov penning a letter urging Australia’s political parties to stay out of Russia’s relations with Indonesia. The ambassador said Australia had no cards to play in the development of military cooperation between Moscow and Djakarta. The row erupted after reports emerged last week that Russia had asked Indonesia for access to an airbase in Indonesia, just 1200km from Darwin. The report caught all off guard with Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles eventually saying Indonesia’s Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, had reassured him the Russia-Indonesia airbase deal was not going to happen. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton continued to call for the government to provide a briefing this week…though the government maintained there was no issue to brief about as Indonesia had ruled it out.