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Weekly Media and Intelligence Report 30/05/25

The Coalition, newly reunited after the first split in 38 years has conducted a frontbench reshuffle. Coalition Leader Susan Ley and Nationals Leader David Littleproud announced the new line-up this week. In moves affecting the Shadow Defence portfolio long serving former SAS commander, Andrew Hastie has moved from Defence to the Home Affairs super portfolio. Mr Hastie signalled ahead of the reshuffle that he would like a change to broaden his experience. Former Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor takes over as Shadow Defence Minister and NT Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa-Price takes over as Shadow Defence Industry Minister. Although some concerns were expressed that the Defence Industry portfolio is now outside Shadow Cabinet. Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy is a member of the Albanese Cabinet. Former Coalition Government Veterans Affairs Minister, the Nationals Darren Chester again takes on that portfolio. Queensland LNP MP and Army veteran Phil Thomspon continues as an Assistant Shadow Defence Minister. The reshuffle came after the Liberals and Nationals reached a reproachment over four policy issues that triggered the split the previous week. But Ms Ley secured a renewed commitment from the Nationals to Shadow Cabinet solidarity. As far as election vote progress goes, with 92 per cent of the Lower House vote counted the swing to Labor is 3.1 per cent with Labor on 55.3 and the Coalition 44.7 on a two-party preferred basis. Labor has 94 seats, the Coalition 43, Independents 9, Greens 1, Centre Alliance 1, Katter’s Australia Party 1 with one seat – the former NSW blue ribbon Liberal seat of Bradfield still in doubt. In the Senate Labor looks again like doing far better than expected, holding as many as 30 of the 76 seats, the Liberals are expected to have 27 and the Greens 11 with additional seats held by the Independents and minor parties.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s annual review of the Defence Budget – “The Cost of Defence 2025-26’’ has called for an immediate increase to spending to ensure the ADF can meet growing regional strategic challenges. The report released on Thursday found the 2025-26 budget was a “business as usual’’ document leaving the ADF ill-prepared for a near term conflict. The report also outlined the challenges involved in seeking to develop a more sustainable sovereign Australian Defence Industry. It says risk-averse, and lengthy industry policies and practices lead to a defence industrial base which remains small and fragmented, struggling to meet the demands of ambitious capability programs. Workforce shortages, particularly in engineering and technical trades, limit industry’s capacity to scale rapidly in response to strategic imperatives. The lengthy pauses in Defence’s acquisition and sustainment activities during the regular reviews of strategy have also exacerbated the cyclical nature of defence demand, resulting in financial instability, discouraging private investment, and complicating long-term industry planning. The report makes eight recommendations for improvement.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s June 4 conference in Canberra will have a special focus on industry preparedness as it deliberates on Australia’s broader readiness to meet the challenges of a more threatening region. The conference titled “Preparedness and Readiness’’ will include sessions on the preparedness and resilience challenges Australia and partners face, as well as examining the Australia-US alliance under the Trump Administration and its impact on defence planning and Australian sovereign capabilities. This year’s event will also have a particular focus on the role of Australian industry in supporting the nation’s preparedness for crises and the public-private partnerships necessary to deliver defence, national security, and broader national resilience. Through a mix of panel discussions, keynote addresses and fireside conversations, the conference will challenge traditional thinking and engage participants on Australia’s most pressing defence and national security challenges. The conference will also discuss the challenges Australia is facing, and what needs to be done to deter conflict in this region while being prepared for, and resilient to, any future crises.

A US private equity firm with strong links to the Trump administration is expected to make an offer for the Port of Darwin according to The Australian newspaper. Cerberus Capital Management was reportedly about to make an offer of more than $500 million for the port. The ownership of the Port became a political football during the election campaign after both Prime Minister Albanese and then Opposition Leader Peter Dutton warned Chinese government linked company Landbridge Group must either sell the port voluntarily or it would be forcibly acquired by the Australian government. Landbridge Group says the port is not for sale, while China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian has also weighed into the dispute saying Landbridge was operating a secure profitable enterprise and should not be punished for its efforts. Landbridge was awarded a 99-year lease over the Port in 2015 at a cost of $506 million. The US has had longstanding concerns over the port’s ownership, however the Albanese Government indicated this week it would like to see the port in Australian hands and there may be other suitors.

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