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Weekly Media and Intelligence Report 31/01/25

Albanese minister quits ahead of early federal budget

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has lost a fourth minister this term with Assistant Treasurer and Financial Services Minister Stephen Jones to quit at the election. Mr Jones made the decision to go six months ago but the Prime Minister asked him to reconsider to see if he would change his mind over Summer. Jones said he was quitting for family reasons and follows Linda Burney, Brendan O’Connor and Bill Shorten who have all quit the frontbench this term. The news came as inflation figures released on Wednesday strengthened the possibility of home loan relief before the Albanese government goes to the polls. The trimmed mean inflation figure fell from 3.6 to 3.2 percent, raising homeowners hopes of a February cut. The Labor Government must go to the polls before May 24. Parliament resumes next week, and the Prime Minister expects to have an early budget in March suggesting the government will opt to go later rather than sooner.

Poll gap increases

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has seen the Coalition re-establish a lead over Labor ahead of the election. The Coalition led Labor 51-49 up from the 50-50 result in a poll taken from Dec 2-6. The poll was conducted from January 20-24 and involved 1259 voters. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton also has closed the gap on the preferred prime minister rating to just three points with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese leading 44-41. The most significant switch in the poll was the proportion of respondents who now believe the Coalition will win the next election either in its own right or in a minority government. On this measure the Coalition was ahead 53-47. This is a reversal of the position when the poll was taken in June when most of those polled believed Labor would win the next election. The development reflects similar trends in other polls over Summer which suggest there has been no poll bounce despite the Prime Minister campaigning since January 6. However, even on the current poll result the likely election outcome is still a minority Labor government.

Minister visits AIDN members

In case you missed it. Three AIDN member companies have hosted Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery, Pat Conroy as part of an effort to encourage more SME’s to get involved in the defence sector. Minister Conroy toured innovative ASX-listed global X-ray technology systems developer Micro-X and leading industrial automation and control systems integrator Sage Group at Tonsley Innovation Hub. ASX-listed global communications and technology solutions company Codan also hosted a ministerial visit at Mawson Lakes for the launch of a new drone radio production line.

Coalition Pre-election reshuffle

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton reshuffled the Coalition front bench to prepare for the upcoming election. Mr Dutton appointed NSW MP and moderate Shadow Communications Minister David Coleman to the vacant foreign affairs portfolio. The reshuffle was required after leading moderates Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister Simon Birmingham and Shadow Government Services Minister Paul Fletcher quit politics. Conservative Tasmanian Senator Clare Chandler was elevated to Shadow Cabinet as minister for government services and the digital economy. Coleman holds the Sydney marginal seat of Banks and Mr Dutton emphasised Mr Coleman’s experience in making the appointment. He is a former minister for immigration, citizenship, migrant services, and multicultural affairs and has been in parliament since 2013. NSW MP Melissa McIntosh joins Shadow Cabinet in taking over Mr Coleman’s communications portfolio. The reshuffle also saw two members of the conservative faction and Victorian MP’s, home affairs spokesperson Senator James Paterson and housing spokesperson and Victorian MP Michael Sukkar become part of the Opposition leadership group.

Full steam ahead for AUKUS

Deputy Prime Minister Riichard Marles had his first phone call with newly minted US Défense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week, providing assurances that the US remains committed to AUKUS. Concerns had been raised that pressure on the US Virginia class submarine production line might see the new Trump administration reduce its commitment to AUKUS – particularly the transfer of Virginia class submarines to Australia. However Minister Marles said following the conversation, Mr Hegseth underscored the importance of the AUKUS submarine pact and American leadership in the Indo-Pacific. “We talked about AUKUS and the need for us to progress that,’’ he said. Mr Marles comments come as the Australian Submarine Agency is being reviewed by former Defence Secretary Dennis Richardson. Mr Richardson is examining the structure, staff makeup and direction of the ASA amid concerns over its performance within government and from defence industry. The ASA was formed in July 2023 as the lead Australian agency overseeing the $368 billion nuclear submarine program.

Missile purchase

The Albanese Government will spend up to $650 million to buy additional Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile-Extended Range (AARGM-ER) missiles. The missiles are designed to detect, attack, and destroy enemy radar systems. This is to increase the war stock of the Australian Defence Force and its ability to deter Australia’s potential adversaries. This investment follows the $431 million for the AARGM-ER missile previously announced in August 2023. These supersonic air-launched missiles will be deployed from Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler aircraft and, in the future, on Australia’s F-35A Lightning II aircraft. The missiles will be acquired through the United States Government’s Foreign Military Sales (FMS) procurement process, reflecting Australia’s close partnership with the United States.

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